Who actually beats the market?
10-year track record for 29 of the best portfolio managers in the world. Ranked by alpha — how much they beat the S&P 500 per year, after fees.
S&P 500 10-year CAGR (benchmark): 13.1%. Anything above that is positive alpha — the manager's skill, not the market's tide.
| # | Manager | 10y CAGR | Alpha▼ | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dev Kantesaria Valley Forge Capital | 18.7% | +5.6% | 8.2 |
| 2 | Chris Hohn TCI Fund Management | 18.6% | +5.5% | 8.2 |
| 3 | Fairfax Financial | 18.0% | +4.9% | 6.9 |
| 4 | Stanley Druckenmiller Duquesne Family Office | 17.0% | +3.9% | 7.2 |
| 5 | David Tepper Appaloosa Management | 16.2% | +3.1% | 7.6 |
| 6 | Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth) | 14.9% | +1.8% | 4.8 |
| 7 | Mohnish Pabrai Pabrai Investment Funds | 14.6% | +1.5% | 5.4 |
| 8 | Akre Capital Management | 14.3% | +1.2% | 7.0 |
| 9 | Polen Capital Polen Capital Management | 14.3% | +1.2% | 5.6 |
| 10 | Fundsmith | 13.5% | +0.4% | 5.8 |
| 11 | François Rochon Giverny Capital | 13.2% | +0.1% | 4.5 |
| 12 | Glenn Greenberg Brave Warrior Advisors | 12.7% | -0.4% | 6.2 |
| 13 | Egerton Capital | 12.6% | -0.5% | 4.9 |
| 14 | David Rolfe Wedgewood Partners | 12.5% | -0.6% | 4.8 |
| 15 | Warren Buffett Berkshire Hathaway | 11.7% | -1.4% | 5.9 |
| 16 | Scion Asset Management | 11.2% | -1.9% | 4.6 |
| 17 | Himalaya Capital | 11.1% | -2.0% | 4.5 |
| 18 | Pershing Square Capital | 11.0% | -2.1% | 5.1 |
| 19 | Oakmark Funds | 10.9% | -2.2% | 4.5 |
| 20 | Cantillon Capital Management | 10.7% | -2.4% | 3.8 |
| 21 | Andreas Halvorsen Viking Global Investors | 9.6% | -3.5% | 4.2 |
| 22 | Joel Greenblatt Gotham Asset Management | 9.0% | -4.1% | 2.2 |
| 23 | Oaktree Capital | 9.0% | -4.2% | 3.7 |
| 24 | Jeffrey Ubben ValueAct Capital | 8.7% | -4.4% | 3.4 |
| 25 | Lone Pine Capital | 8.6% | -4.5% | 2.5 |
| 26 | Tiger Global Management | 8.4% | -4.7% | 3.3 |
| 27 | Seth Klarman Baupost Group | 5.4% | -7.7% | 2.2 |
| 28 | Maverick Capital | 4.0% | -9.2% | 1.0 |
| 29 | David Einhorn Greenlight Capital | 3.3% | -9.8% | 0.1 |
Quality score formula
Each manager's quality score is computed from real 10-year returns, not reputation. Replaces the hand-curated tier system used in earlier HoldLens versions.
+ alpha10y × 0.20 // each 1% of alpha = +0.2
+ (winRate − 0.5) × 6 // 80% win rate = +1.8
+ cagr10y × 0.05 // each 1% CAGR = +0.05
− drawdown penalty // each 10% beyond -20% = -0.5
+ uncorrelated bonus // macro / distressed = +0.3
clamped 0 to 10
Annual returns are sourced from public fund reports (Berkshire, Pershing Square, Akre, Fundsmith, Polen, Oakmark, Wedgewood, Scottish Mortgage Trust, Greenlight) and reasonable estimates from press coverage for private funds (Druckenmiller, Tepper, TCI, Tiger Global, Viking, Lone Pine, Maverick, Egerton, Cantillon, Valley Forge, Himalaya, Baupost, Scion, Pabrai, Gotham, Brave Warrior, Giverny, ValueAct, Appaloosa, Fairfax). Used by the recommendation model to weight each manager's buy/sell signal — a Buffett or Druckenmiller move counts more than one from a less-proven manager. Not investment advice.
The canon behind the rankings
Every manager on this leaderboard built a process on the same handful of books. These are them.
Amazon affiliate links — as an Amazon Associate, HoldLens earns from qualifying purchases and membership trials at no extra cost to you. These are books we genuinely recommend. Not investment advice; always do your own research.
New Audible members only · 30-day trial · many of these titles are included with membership.