Whose entire portfolio does smart money agree with?
30 managers ranked by the position-weighted average ConvictionScore of their top holdings. A high score means the unified −100..+100 smart-money model agrees with every one of their biggest bets, right now.
Forward-looking, not historical. Position-weighted so a +60 score on a 25% position counts more than +60 on a 2% position. “(Own)” holdings excluded.
Position-weighted conviction
Each manager’s top holdings (excluding their own company) scored on the unified −100..+100 ConvictionScale, then weighted by position size and averaged.
| # | Manager | Weighted avg |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dev Kantesaria Valley Forge Capital | +12.2 |
| 2 | Mohnish Pabrai Pabrai Investment Funds | +11.3 |
| 3 | Michael Burry Scion Asset Management | +7 |
| 4 | Howard Marks Oaktree Capital | +5.9 |
| 5 | Prem Watsa Fairfax Financial | +3.8 |
| 6 | David Einhorn Greenlight Capital | +3.2 |
| 7 | Glenn Greenberg Brave Warrior Advisors | +3 |
| 8 | Li Lu Himalaya Capital | +2.5 |
| 9 | Chris Hohn TCI Fund Management | −0.1 |
| 10 | Stanley Druckenmiller Duquesne Family Office | −1.1 |
| 11 | Jeffrey Ubben ValueAct Capital | −1.4 |
| 12 | Carl Icahn Icahn Enterprises | −1.8 |
| 13 | Seth Klarman Baupost Group | −2.5 |
| 14 | Chuck Akre Akre Capital Management | −3 |
| 15 | David Tepper Appaloosa Management | −3.2 |
| 16 | William von Mueffling Cantillon Capital Management | −3.4 |
| 17 | David Rolfe Wedgewood Partners | −3.5 |
| 18 | Bill Ackman Pershing Square Capital | −4.1 |
| 19 | Tom Slater Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth) | −4.5 |
| 20 | Terry Smith Fundsmith | −5.8 |
Position-weighted average
For each manager, every top-10 holding (excluding “(own)” companies like Icahn’s IEP) gets the unified −100..+100 ConvictionScore. We then average those scores weighted by the size of each position in the portfolio. A 25%-of-portfolio +60 conviction beats a 2% +60 conviction.
This is a forward-looking signal, distinct from /leaderboard (historical 10y alpha) and /manager-rankings (skill × activity composite). Average across all 30 leaders: −2.5.
ConvictionScore methodology: methodology. Not investment advice. Updates with each new 13F filing cycle.
Reading for your research
Optional background reading on interpreting company disclosures and investing methods. These books do not validate a signal or predict returns.
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