Fresh conviction · rarest buys
The trades nobody else is on
Across 8 quarters of 13F filings, 2868 new positions were opened in tickers currently held by two managers or fewer. 2719 of them are held by zero other managers — completely alone on the trade.
Dataroma shows consensus — the tickers everyone owns. HoldLens shows rarity: the positions a single high-quality manager opened while everyone else was looking the other way. When the conviction gap is that wide, the thesis is worth reading.
2868
Lonely new trades
2719
Zero other owners
115
Held by one other mgr
Top 10 · the loneliest conviction
Rarest new trades, ranked
Q1 2026·NEW
DALDELTA AIR LINES INC
ALONE
in fleet today
ConvictionScore: −11Book impact: 1.0%
Q4 2025·NEW
FNDFND
ALONE
in fleet today
“New Floor & Decor position — retail bet.”
ConvictionScore: −10Book impact: 0.8%
Q4 2025·NEW
LLYVALIBERTY LIVE HOLDINGS INC
ALONE
in fleet today
ConvictionScore: −2Book impact: 0.5%
Q4 2024·NEW
STZCONSTELLATION BRANDS INC
ALONE
in fleet today
ConvictionScore: −4Book impact: 0.5%
Q3 2024·NEW
DPZDPZ
ALONE
in fleet today
“First Domino's position.”
ConvictionScore: +6Book impact: 0.4%
Q3 2024·NEW
POOLPOOL
ALONE
in fleet today
“New Pool Corp position.”
ConvictionScore: −11Book impact: 0.4%
Q3 2025·NEW
DPZDPZ
ALONE
in fleet today
“New Domino's Pizza position — surprise entry.”
ConvictionScore: +6Book impact: 0.3%
Q2 2025·NEW
NUENUCOR CORP
ALONE
in fleet today
ConvictionScore: −8Book impact: 0.3%
Q4 2025·NEW
NYTNEW YORK TIMES CO
ALONE
in fleet today
ConvictionScore: +4Book impact: 0.1%
Q2 2025·NEW
DHID R HORTON INC
ALONE
in fleet today
ConvictionScore: −5Book impact: 0.1%
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Remove with Pro →Full list · every rare new trade
Every new position in a lonely name
| # | Manager | Ticker | Quarter | Others | Book % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warren Buffett q10 · Berkshire Hathaway | DAL DELTA AIR LINES INC | Q1 2026 | 0 | 1.0% |
| 2 | Warren Buffett q10 · Berkshire Hathaway | FND FND | Q4 2025 | 0 | 0.8% |
| 3 | Warren Buffett q10 · Berkshire Hathaway | LLYVA LIBERTY LIVE HOLDINGS INC | Q4 2025 | 0 | 0.5% |
| 4 | Warren Buffett q10 · Berkshire Hathaway | STZ CONSTELLATION BRANDS INC | Q4 2024 | 0 | 0.5% |
| 5 | Warren Buffett q10 · Berkshire Hathaway | DPZ DPZ | Q3 2024 | 0 | 0.4% |
| 6 | Warren Buffett q10 · Berkshire Hathaway | POOL POOL | Q3 2024 | 0 | 0.4% |
| 7 | Warren Buffett q10 · Berkshire Hathaway | DPZ DPZ | Q3 2025 | 0 | 0.3% |
| 8 | Warren Buffett q10 · Berkshire Hathaway | NUE NUCOR CORP | Q2 2025 | 0 | 0.3% |
| 9 | Warren Buffett q10 · Berkshire Hathaway | NYT NEW YORK TIMES CO | Q4 2025 | 0 | 0.1% |
| 10 | Warren Buffett q10 · Berkshire Hathaway | DHI D R HORTON INC | Q2 2025 | 0 | 0.1% |
| 11 | Warren Buffett q10 · Berkshire Hathaway | LAMR LAMAR ADVERTISING CO NEW | Q2 2025 | 0 | 0.1% |
| 12 | Warren Buffett q10 · Berkshire Hathaway | DHI D R HORTON INC | Q2 2026 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 13 | Warren Buffett q10 · Berkshire Hathaway | M MACYS INC | Q1 2026 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 14 | Warren Buffett q10 · Berkshire Hathaway | ALLE ALLEGION PLC | Q2 2025 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 15 | David Tepper q9 · Appaloosa Management | SPYX SPDR SER TR | Q1 2025 | 0 | 30.0% |
| 16 | Howard Marks q9 · Oaktree Capital | SPY STATE STREET CORP | Q2 2026 | 0 | 14.0% |
| 17 | Seth Klarman q9 · Baupost Group | WTW WILLIS TOWERS WATSON PLC LTD | Q4 2025 | 0 | 8.5% |
| 18 | Seth Klarman q9 · Baupost Group | ELV ELEVANCE HEALTH INC FORMERLY | Q4 2025 | 0 | 8.4% |
| 19 | Stephen Mandel q9 · Lone Pine Capital | NBIS NEBIUS GROUP N.V. | Q2 2026 | 0 | 7.2% |
| 20 | Seth Klarman q9 · Baupost Group | UNP UNION PAC CORP | Q4 2025 | 0 | 7.1% |
| 21 | Stanley Druckenmiller q9 · Duquesne Family Office | XLF Select Sector Spdr Tr | Q4 2025 | 0 | 6.7% |
| 22 | Seth Klarman q9 · Baupost Group | WCC WESCO INTL INC | Q4 2025 | 0 | 6.6% |
| 23 | Seth Klarman q9 · Baupost Group | FERG FERGUSON ENTERPRISES INC | Q4 2024 | 0 | 5.7% |
| 24 | Stephen Mandel q9 · Lone Pine Capital | HD HOME DEPOT INC | Q2 2026 | 0 | 5.6% |
| 25 | Stanley Druckenmiller q9 · Duquesne Family Office | EWZ Ishares Inc | Q4 2025 | 0 | 5.5% |
| 26 | Stephen Mandel q9 · Lone Pine Capital | AMAT APPLIED MATLS INC | Q2 2026 | 0 | 5.3% |
| 27 | Howard Marks q9 · Oaktree Capital | QQQ INVESCO QQQ TRUST SERIES 1 | Q1 2026 | 0 | 5.2% |
| 28 | Seth Klarman q9 · Baupost Group | DG DOLLAR GEN CORP NEW | Q4 2025 | 0 | 5.2% |
| 29 | Stanley Druckenmiller q9 · Duquesne Family Office | RSP Invesco Exchange Traded Fd T | Q4 2025 | 0 | 5.0% |
| 30 | Stephen Mandel q9 · Lone Pine Capital | LIN LINDE PLC | Q2 2026 | 0 | 4.9% |
| 31 | Seth Klarman q9 · Baupost Group | AON AON PLC | Q1 2026 | 0 | 4.9% |
| 32 | Stephen Mandel q9 · Lone Pine Capital | CVNA CARVANA CO | Q1 2025 | 0 | 4.9% |
| 33 | Seth Klarman q9 · Baupost Group | FERG FERGUSON ENTERPRISES INC | Q4 2025 | 0 | 4.8% |
| 34 | Seth Klarman q9 · Baupost Group | LBTYA LIBERTY GLOBAL LTD | Q4 2025 | 0 | 4.8% |
| 35 | Stephen Mandel q9 · Lone Pine Capital | ASML ASML HOLDING N V | Q4 2025 | 0 | 4.8% |
| 36 | Seth Klarman q9 · Baupost Group | EXP EAGLE MATLS INC | Q4 2025 | 0 | 4.6% |
| 37 | David Rolfe q9 · Wedgewood Partners | URI UNITED RENTALS INC | Q2 2025 | 0 | 4.6% |
| 38 | Stephen Mandel q9 · Lone Pine Capital | TER TERADYNE INC | Q1 2026 | 0 | 4.4% |
| 39 | Howard Marks q9 · Oaktree Capital | SMH VANECK SEMICONDUCTOR ETF | Q4 2025 | 0 | 4.4% |
| 40 | Stephen Mandel q9 · Lone Pine Capital | DASH DOORDASH INC | Q4 2025 | 0 | 4.2% |
| 41 | Stephen Mandel q9 · Lone Pine Capital | GLW CORNING INC | Q1 2026 | 0 | 4.0% |
| 42 | Stephen Mandel q9 · Lone Pine Capital | MTZ MASTEC INC | Q1 2026 | 0 | 3.9% |
| 43 | David Rolfe q9 · Wedgewood Partners | ZTS ZOETIS INC | Q2 2025 | 0 | 3.8% |
| 44 | Seth Klarman q9 · Baupost Group | TFX TELEFLEX INCORPORATED | Q1 2026 | 0 | 3.7% |
| 45 | Howard Marks q9 · Oaktree Capital | VNOM VIPER ENERGY INC | Q3 2025 | 0 | 3.7% |
| 46 | Seth Klarman q9 · Baupost Group | FISV FISERV INC | Q2 2025 | 0 | 3.7% |
| 47 | Stephen Mandel q9 · Lone Pine Capital | FLUT FLUTTER ENTMT PLC | Q4 2024 | 0 | 3.7% |
| 48 | Stephen Mandel q9 · Lone Pine Capital | MDLN MEDLINE INC | Q4 2025 | 0 | 3.6% |
| 49 | Terry Smith q9 · Fundsmith | GEV GE VERNOVA INC | Q2 2026 | 0 | 3.5% |
| 50 | David Rolfe q9 · Wedgewood Partners | PGR PROGRESSIVE CORP | Q1 2026 | 0 | 3.5% |
| 51 | Seth Klarman q9 · Baupost Group | GPC GENUINE PARTS CO | Q4 2025 | 0 | 3.5% |
| 52 | Stephen Mandel q9 · Lone Pine Capital | TOL TOLL BROTHERS INC | Q1 2025 | 0 | 3.5% |
| 53 | Stanley Druckenmiller q9 · Duquesne Family Office | ENTG Entegris Inc | Q2 2025 | 0 | 3.3% |
| 54 | Stanley Druckenmiller q9 · Duquesne Family Office | UAL United Airls Hldgs Inc | Q4 2024 | 0 | 3.3% |
| 55 | Stanley Druckenmiller q9 · Duquesne Family Office | ARM ARM | Q3 2025 | 0 | 3.2% |
| 56 | Stephen Mandel q9 · Lone Pine Capital | STRL STERLING INFRASTRUCTURE INC | Q2 2026 | 0 | 3.1% |
| 57 | Stephen Mandel q9 · Lone Pine Capital | TTMI TTM TECHNOLOGIES INC | Q2 2026 | 0 | 3.1% |
| 58 | François Rochon q9 · Giverny Capital | ADP AUTOMATIC DATA PROC INC | Q1 2026 | 0 | 3.1% |
| 59 | Stephen Mandel q9 · Lone Pine Capital | VMC VULCAN MATLS CO | Q3 2025 | 0 | 3.1% |
| 60 | Stephen Mandel q9 · Lone Pine Capital | EQT EQT CORP | Q2 2025 | 0 | 3.1% |
| 61 | Seth Klarman q9 · Baupost Group | ELV ELEVANCE HEALTH INC | Q1 2025 | 0 | 3.1% |
| 62 | David Tepper q9 · Appaloosa Management | SNDK SANDISK CORP | Q1 2026 | 0 | 3.0% |
| 63 | Stephen Mandel q9 · Lone Pine Capital | CRS CARPENTER TECHNOLOGY CORP | Q4 2025 | 0 | 3.0% |
| 64 | Stephen Mandel q9 · Lone Pine Capital | NU NU HLDGS LTD | Q3 2025 | 0 | 3.0% |
| 65 | Stephen Mandel q9 · Lone Pine Capital | ONON ON HLDG AG | Q2 2026 | 0 | 2.9% |
| 66 | Howard Marks q9 · Oaktree Capital | XOP STATE STREET SPDR S&P OIL & GAS EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION ETF | Q1 2026 | 0 | 2.9% |
| 67 | Stanley Druckenmiller q9 · Duquesne Family Office | DOCU Docusign Inc | Q1 2025 | 0 | 2.9% |
| 68 | Stanley Druckenmiller q9 · Duquesne Family Office | DAL Delta Air Lines Inc Del | Q4 2024 | 0 | 2.9% |
| 69 | Stanley Druckenmiller q9 · Duquesne Family Office | PLTR PLTR | Q3 2025 | 0 | 2.8% |
| 70 | Stanley Druckenmiller q9 · Duquesne Family Office | FOXA Fox Corp | Q2 2026 | 0 | 2.8% |
| 71 | Stephen Mandel q9 · Lone Pine Capital | USFD US FOODS HLDG CORP | Q1 2026 | 0 | 2.8% |
| 72 | Seth Klarman q9 · Baupost Group | FISV FISERV INC | Q4 2025 | 0 | 2.8% |
| 73 | David Tepper q9 · Appaloosa Management | INTC INTEL CORP | Q2 2025 | 0 | 2.8% |
| 74 | Stanley Druckenmiller q9 · Duquesne Family Office | CDW Cdw Corp | Q2 2026 | 0 | 2.7% |
| 75 | Stephen Mandel q9 · Lone Pine Capital | MCK MCKESSON CORP | Q1 2026 | 0 | 2.7% |
| 76 | Stephen Mandel q9 · Lone Pine Capital | PFGC PERFORMANCE FOOD GROUP CO | Q1 2026 | 0 | 2.7% |
| 77 | Stephen Mandel q9 · Lone Pine Capital | APH AMPHENOL CORP NEW | Q3 2025 | 0 | 2.7% |
| 78 | Stephen Mandel q9 · Lone Pine Capital | WING WINGSTOP INC | Q3 2025 | 0 | 2.7% |
| 79 | Stephen Mandel q9 · Lone Pine Capital | CDNS CADENCE DESIGN SYSTEM INC | Q1 2025 | 0 | 2.7% |
| 80 | Terry Smith q9 · Fundsmith | APP APPLOVIN CORP | Q2 2026 | 0 | 2.6% |
| 81 | David Rolfe q9 · Wedgewood Partners | TOL TOLL BROTHERS INC | Q1 2026 | 0 | 2.6% |
| 82 | David Tepper q9 · Appaloosa Management | EWY ISHARES INC | Q4 2025 | 0 | 2.6% |
| 83 | Stephen Mandel q9 · Lone Pine Capital | THC TENET HEALTHCARE CORP | Q4 2025 | 0 | 2.6% |
| 84 | Seth Klarman q9 · Baupost Group | HUM HUMANA INC | Q4 2024 | 0 | 2.6% |
| 85 | Seth Klarman q9 · Baupost Group | CME CME GROUP INC | Q2 2026 | 0 | 2.5% |
| 86 | Terry Smith q9 · Fundsmith | NXT NEXTPOWER INC | Q2 2026 | 0 | 2.5% |
| 87 | Terry Smith q9 · Fundsmith | TJX TJX COS INC NEW | Q2 2026 | 0 | 2.5% |
| 88 | Chuck Akre q9 · Akre Capital Management | CRM SALESFORCE INC | Q1 2026 | 0 | 2.5% |
| 89 | Stephen Mandel q9 · Lone Pine Capital | CIEN CIENA CORP | Q1 2026 | 0 | 2.5% |
| 90 | Seth Klarman q9 · Baupost Group | CRH CRH PLC | Q4 2025 | 0 | 2.5% |
| 91 | Stephen Mandel q9 · Lone Pine Capital | BKNG BOOKING HOLDINGS INC | Q2 2025 | 0 | 2.5% |
| 92 | Stephen Mandel q9 · Lone Pine Capital | CLH CLEAN HARBORS INC | Q4 2025 | 0 | 2.4% |
| 93 | Stephen Mandel q9 · Lone Pine Capital | WIX WIX COM LTD | Q2 2025 | 0 | 2.4% |
| 94 | Stephen Mandel q9 · Lone Pine Capital | HUT HUT 8 CORP | Q1 2026 | 0 | 2.3% |
| 95 | Stephen Mandel q9 · Lone Pine Capital | WULF TERAWULF INC | Q1 2026 | 0 | 2.3% |
| 96 | Seth Klarman q9 · Baupost Group | HLF HERBALIFE LTD | Q4 2025 | 0 | 2.3% |
| 97 | David Tepper q9 · Appaloosa Management | BA BOEING CO | Q2 2026 | 0 | 2.2% |
| 98 | Howard Marks q9 · Oaktree Capital | ORCL ORACLE CORP | Q3 2025 | 0 | 2.2% |
| 99 | Howard Marks q9 · Oaktree Capital | TDS TELEPHONE AND DATA SYSTEMS INC | Q3 2025 | 0 | 2.2% |
| 100 | Seth Klarman q9 · Baupost Group | MOH MOLINA HEALTHCARE INC | Q4 2025 | 0 | 2.1% |
How fresh conviction is detected
Rarity filter on top-holdings index
- 1. Action filter. Only new actions count — adds to existing positions live on /biggest-buys.
- 2. Rarity filter. The ticker must currently be held as a top holding by two or fewer managers across the entire HoldLens fleet. Above that threshold, the name has already joined a crowd.
- 3. Ranking. Loneliness (3 − current owner count) descending, tiebroken by manager quality, then book impact.
This page is deliberately the opposite of /consensus and /crowded-trades. Consensus measures agreement. Fresh conviction measures isolation — the rarest, highest-signal bets in the archive.
Not investment advice. Rarity computed against current top-holdings index. Methodology.
Deep dive
Reading for your research
Optional background reading on interpreting company disclosures and investing methods. These books do not validate a signal or predict returns.
Amazon affiliate links — as an Amazon Associate, HoldLens earns from qualifying purchases and membership trials at no extra cost to you. These are books we genuinely recommend. Not investment advice; always do your own research.
Benjamin Graham
The Intelligent Investor
The foundational text. Buffett calls it 'by far the best book about investing ever written.'
See price on Amazon
Benjamin Graham & David Dodd
Security Analysis
The deep dive behind The Intelligent Investor — how to actually read a filing and value a business.
See price on Amazon
See the full investing reading list
More by topic:Foundations