Signal dossier · Q2 2026

TSLA

Informational only — not investment advice. HoldLens tracks institutional positioning from public 13F filings. We are not a registered investment advisor and do not provide recommendations to buy or sell securities. Our 2026 backtest over 221 ticker-quarter pairs found the ConvictionScore has no predictive signal for forward returns (Pearson r = −0.12). The rankings describe what tracked superinvestors were accumulating or selling at the latest 13F snapshot — useful as market intelligence, not as personal investment advice. 13F data is reported with a 45-day SEC filing lag.

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ConvictionScore · single −100..+100 scale

Net selling

−11

on a signed −100 sell scale · Slight selling

2 tracked managers selling. MODERATE selling pattern.

Unified ConvictionScore · −100..+100

Smart money + insider + track record + trend + concentration + contrarian − dissent − crowding

−11

Buy component

+-3

Dissent penalty

−8

Unanimity bonus

Quality differential

Info density

Buyers / Sellers

3 / 2

ConvictionScore v5 · 9-layer breakdown

13F superinvestor moves + Form 4 insider trades + 8-K material events. The SEC Signals trilogy.

−11

Smart money (13F)

Insider activity (Form 4)

-7

Track record (CAGR)

-5

Trend streak

Concentration

Contrarian bonus

Event signal (8-K)

− Dissent penalty

−8

− Crowding penalty

−0

Owners: 1·Buyers: 17·Sellers: 10·Buyer-CAGR-weighted expected return: +10.1% ±3.3%·How this is computed

Why this score?

See the 9 factors that produced −11 for TSLA

HoldLens's ConvictionScore is the sum of 9 factors clamped to −100/+100. Each factor has a known min/max range; the math is deterministic and reproducible. Every input traces to a public SEC filing. Full methodology →

Factor	Contribution	Range	What it measures
Smart money	+8	0 to +30	Sum of buyer manager quality × consensus (number of managers buying weighted by track record).
Insider activity	-7	-15 to +20	Form 4 CEO/CFO/director discretionary buys (+) or sells (−) in last 90 days.
Track record	-5	-10 to +20	Buyer's 10-year compound annual return × position concentration. Pros placing big bets count more.
Trend streak	0	0 to +10	Multi-quarter compounding — managers adding for 3+ consecutive quarters.
Concentration	+1	0 to +10	Biggest position size among buyers — proves conviction.
Contrarian bonus	0	0 to +10	Under-the-radar — fewer total managers know about it = more upside if right.
8-K events	0	-15 to +5	Material events filed last 90 days — Chapter 11 (−), CEO change, M&A, etc.
Dissent	+8	-40 to +0	Sellers subtract from the buy signal — weighted ×1.6 relative to buys.
Crowding	0	-10 to +0	Too many managers holding = price already reflects consensus = less upside.
Sum (clamped −100/+100)	−11	−100 to +100	(raw sum 5 clamped to score -11)

How to read: emerald = positive contribution to the buy signal; rose = penalty (sellers, crowded ownership, bearish 8-K events). Hover any factor name in the methodology page for the exact formula. Every number is computed at build time from EDGAR filings — no proprietary opinion layer, no editorial scoring. For TSLA specifically: 17 buyers vs 10 sellers among the 30 tracked managers.

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8-quarter activity

Distinct managers buying or selling TSLA each quarter — last 2 years.

0 buy moves·1 sell moves·net selling

'24 Q1

'24 Q2

'24 Q3

'24 Q4

'25 Q1

'25 Q2

'25 Q3

'25 Q4

'26 Q1

'26 Q2

Buyers (new + add)Sellers (trim + exit)

Ownership breadth · 8 quarters

Breadth falling

-2 owners over 8Q

Q1 '24

Q2 '24

Q3 '24

Q4 '24

Q1 '25

Q2 '25

Q3 '25

Q4 '25

Q1 '26

Q2 '26

Fewer superinvestors hold this name than 8 quarters ago — rotation out. See the most-owned names across all tracked managers →

Smart money activity

Every tracked 13F move on TSLA — grouped by quarter, ranked by manager quality.

Smart money activity

17 buys · 10 sells across tracked 13F filings

Net signal: Heavy accumulation

Q2 2026(5 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office	Buy (new)	+126K	1.00%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 33.00%	+749K	0.40%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Add 22.00%	+2K	0.00%
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Reduce 78.00%	-1.95M	0.70%
Tom SlaterElite Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)	Reduce 44.00%	-572K	0.30%

Q1 2026(3 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Add 47.00%	+794K	2.60%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 6.00%	+132K	0.40%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Reduce 10.00%	-803	0.00%

Q4 2025(3 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Add 6.00%	+90K	2.00%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 10.00%	+189K	0.50%
Tom SlaterElite Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth) Small Tesla trim — rebalancing.	Reduce 8.00%	-180K	6.80%

Q3 2025(3 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Add 46.00%	+509K	1.90%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 18.00%	+295K	0.50%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Add 28.00%	+2K	0.00%

Q2 2025(4 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Add 214%	+750K	1.00%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 43.00%	+497K	0.40%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Buy (new)	+7K	0.00%
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office	Sell (exit)	-19K	0.00%

Q1 2025(4 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Buy (new)	+350K	0.30%
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office	Reduce 50.00%	-19K	0.20%
Lee AinslieElite Maverick Capital	Sell (exit)	-500K	0.00%
Tom SlaterElite Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)	Reduce 76.00%	-5.66M	0.40%

Q4 2024(5 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office	Buy (new)	+38K	0.40%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 113%	+585K	0.60%
Lee AinslieElite Maverick Capital	Add 25.00%	+100K	2.70%
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Sell (exit)	-436K	0.00%
Tom SlaterElite Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)	Reduce 41.00%	-5.24M	2.30%

Insider activity

What the company's own executives and directors are doing — buys are highly bullish.

Insider activity (Form 4)

2 buys · 4 sells from corporate insiders

Net: INSIDER SELLING

Insider	Action	Shares	Value	Date
Taneja Vaibhav Chief Financial Officer	sell	2,000	$0	May 13, 2026
Taneja Vaibhav Chief Financial Officer	sell	1,000	$0	May 13, 2026
Taneja Vaibhav Chief Financial Officer	sell	3,000	$1.35M	May 13, 2026
Taneja Vaibhav Chief Financial Officer	buy	2,000	$36K	May 13, 2026
Taneja Vaibhav Chief Financial Officer	buy	1,000	$18K	May 13, 2026
Robyn Denholm Chair Discretionary sale, no plan.	sell	100,000	$41.50M	Jan 8, 2026

Latest news

Recent headlines for TSLA — context for the moves above.

Who’s betting biggest on TSLA

Consumer Discretionary sector →

Each bar is one manager’s position size in TSLA as a % of their portfolio. Longer bar = bigger conviction bet. T1 badge marks the highest-quality track records.

Tom Slater

6.8%

“Early and long — AV optionality.”

AI thesis

An AI-synthesised investment thesis for TSLA, based on the 13F data above. Generated on demand — not stored or pre-computed.

AI thesis

Claude Haiku synthesis of net selling positioning from 1 institutional filers

Generate a 2-paragraph investment thesis synthesising 1 institutional holdings and the -11 conviction score.

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The HoldLens signal dossier shows the unified −100..+100 ConvictionScore alongside live prices, multi-quarter trend detection, insider activity, and real-time news. Not investment advice. Methodology.

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