Signal dossier · Q2 2026

MSCI

Informational only — not investment advice. HoldLens tracks institutional positioning from public 13F filings. We are not a registered investment advisor and do not provide recommendations to buy or sell securities. Our 2026 backtest over 221 ticker-quarter pairs found the ConvictionScore has no predictive signal for forward returns (Pearson r = −0.12). The rankings describe what tracked superinvestors were accumulating or selling at the latest 13F snapshot — useful as market intelligence, not as personal investment advice. 13F data is reported with a 45-day SEC filing lag.

See the backtest →

ConvictionScore · single −100..+100 scale

Net buying

+11

on a signed +100 buy scale · Slight accumulation

1 tracked manager buying MODERATE signal.

Unified ConvictionScore · −100..+100

Smart money + insider + track record + trend + concentration + contrarian − dissent − crowding

+11

Buy component

+33

Dissent penalty

−21

Unanimity bonus

+10

Quality differential

-3

Info density

Buyers / Sellers

1 / 4

ConvictionScore v5 · 9-layer breakdown

13F superinvestor moves + Form 4 insider trades + 8-K material events. The SEC Signals trilogy.

+11

Smart money (13F)

Insider activity (Form 4)

Track record (CAGR)

Trend streak

Concentration

Contrarian bonus

Event signal (8-K)

− Dissent penalty

−21

− Crowding penalty

−0

Owners: 1·Buyers: 10·Sellers: 14·Buyer-CAGR-weighted expected return: +16.1% ±3.7%·How this is computed

Why this score?

See the 9 factors that produced +11 for MSCI

HoldLens's ConvictionScore is the sum of 9 factors clamped to −100/+100. Each factor has a known min/max range; the math is deterministic and reproducible. Every input traces to a public SEC filing. Full methodology →

Factor	Contribution	Range	What it measures
Smart money	+9	0 to +30	Sum of buyer manager quality × consensus (number of managers buying weighted by track record).
Insider activity	0	-15 to +20	Form 4 CEO/CFO/director discretionary buys (+) or sells (−) in last 90 days.
Track record	+6	-10 to +20	Buyer's 10-year compound annual return × position concentration. Pros placing big bets count more.
Trend streak	+1	0 to +10	Multi-quarter compounding — managers adding for 3+ consecutive quarters.
Concentration	+8	0 to +10	Biggest position size among buyers — proves conviction.
Contrarian bonus	+9	0 to +10	Under-the-radar — fewer total managers know about it = more upside if right.
8-K events	0	-15 to +5	Material events filed last 90 days — Chapter 11 (−), CEO change, M&A, etc.
Dissent	+21	-40 to +0	Sellers subtract from the buy signal — weighted ×1.6 relative to buys.
Crowding	0	-10 to +0	Too many managers holding = price already reflects consensus = less upside.
Sum (clamped −100/+100)	+11	−100 to +100	(raw sum 54 clamped to score 11)

How to read: emerald = positive contribution to the buy signal; rose = penalty (sellers, crowded ownership, bearish 8-K events). Hover any factor name in the methodology page for the exact formula. Every number is computed at build time from EDGAR filings — no proprietary opinion layer, no editorial scoring. For MSCI specifically: 10 buyers vs 14 sellers among the 30 tracked managers.

Share this signal

8-quarter activity

Distinct managers buying or selling MSCI each quarter — last 2 years.

1 buy moves·0 sell moves·net buying

'24 Q1

'24 Q2

'24 Q3

'24 Q4

'25 Q1

'25 Q2

'25 Q3

'25 Q4

'26 Q1

'26 Q2

Buyers (new + add)Sellers (trim + exit)

Ownership breadth · 8 quarters

Breadth flat

+1 owners over 8Q

Q1 '24

Q2 '24

Q3 '24

Q4 '24

Q1 '25

Q2 '25

Q3 '25

Q4 '25

Q1 '26

Q2 '26

The number of superinvestors holding this name has been stable for 8 quarters. See the most-owned names across all tracked managers →

Smart money activity

Every tracked 13F move on MSCI — grouped by quarter, ranked by manager quality.

Smart money activity

10 buys · 14 sells across tracked 13F filings

Net signal: Heavy selling

Q2 2026(5 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Buy (new)	+1.16M	1.90%
Terry SmithTier 1 Fundsmith	Reduce 17.00%	-11K	0.20%
Li LuElite Himalaya Capital	Sell (exit)	-19K	0.00%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Reduce 28.00%	-258K	3.20%
Tom SlaterElite Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)	Reduce 7.00%	-56K	0.40%

Q1 2026(5 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 61.00%	+248K	0.20%
Li LuElite Himalaya Capital	Buy (new)	+19K	0.30%
Dev KantesariaTier 1 Valley Forge Capital	Sell (exit)	-61K	0.00%
Terry SmithTier 1 Fundsmith	Reduce 61.00%	-102K	0.30%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Reduce 30.00%	-402K	3.50%

Q4 2025(4 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Dev KantesariaTier 1 Valley Forge Capital Index monopoly add.	Add 8.00%	+15K	15.30%
Tom SlaterElite Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)	Add 22.00%	+155K	0.40%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Reduce 22.00%	-117K	0.10%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Reduce 16.00%	-253K	3.30%

Q3 2025(3 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Tom SlaterElite Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)	Add 92.00%	+331K	0.30%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Reduce 21.00%	-138K	0.20%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Reduce 9.00%	-157K	2.90%

Q2 2025(2 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Tom SlaterElite Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)	Buy (new)	+361K	0.20%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Reduce 7.00%	-127K	3.10%

Q1 2025(2 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 356%	+516K	0.40%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Reduce 8.00%	-164K	3.30%

Q4 2024(3 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Dev KantesariaTier 1 Valley Forge Capital	Buy (new)	+60K	1.00%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 54.00%	+51K	0.10%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Reduce 9.00%	-196K	3.30%

Insider activity

What the company's own executives and directors are doing — buys are highly bullish.

Latest news

Recent headlines for MSCI — context for the moves above.

Who’s betting biggest on MSCI

Financials sector →→ Ranks #16 of 52 tracked bets

Each bar is one manager’s position size in MSCI as a % of their portfolio. Longer bar = bigger conviction bet. T1 badge marks the highest-quality track records.

Dev KantesariaT1

15.3%

“Index monopoly — fee compounder.”

AI thesis

An AI-synthesised investment thesis for MSCI, based on the 13F data above. Generated on demand — not stored or pre-computed.

AI thesis

Claude Haiku synthesis of net buying positioning from 1 institutional filers

Generate a 2-paragraph investment thesis synthesising 1 institutional holdings and the +11 conviction score.

Related smart-money signals

Derived from the same 13F filings

Same sector · Financials

Top conviction in this sector

All Financials names →

Remove with Pro →

Share the MSCI signal

Post LinkedIn Reddit Facebook

The HoldLens signal dossier shows the unified −100..+100 ConvictionScore alongside live prices, multi-quarter trend detection, insider activity, and real-time news. Not investment advice. Methodology.

Sister property: SecFilingDex — the encyclopedic reference for every SEC form variant (13F-HR / 13F-NT / 13F-HR/A) and the regulatory citation behind the data on this page.

Deep dive

Read the filings like an analyst

The two books that teach how to read what a company and its holders actually disclose.

Amazon affiliate links — as an Amazon Associate, HoldLens earns from qualifying purchases and membership trials at no extra cost to you. These are books we genuinely recommend. Not investment advice; always do your own research.

Benjamin Graham & David Dodd

Security Analysis

The deep dive behind The Intelligent Investor — how to actually read a filing and value a business.

See price on Amazon

Benjamin Graham

The Intelligent Investor

The foundational text. Buffett calls it 'by far the best book about investing ever written.'

See price on Amazon

Prefer to listen? Start a free Audible trial

New Audible members only · 30-day trial · many of these titles are included with membership.

See the full investing reading list