Which ETF replicates each superinvestor's portfolio?
For every tracked manager, we score 12 major US ETFs by portfolio-overlap with their disclosed top-10 holdings. The score weights each shared ticker by both the manager's position size and the ETF's holding weight — a ticker held heavily by both contributes much more than one held marginally by either. Click through to a manager for the full ranked list and per-ticker breakdown.
Closest ETF match per manager
| Manager | Closest ETF | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Li Lu | XLF | 328.0 |
| Warren Buffett | XLK | 308.9 |
| Stanley Druckenmiller | XLK | 268.8 |
| Chuck Akre | XLF | 221.6 |
| Chase Coleman | XLK | 219.8 |
| David Tepper | XLK | 217.2 |
| John Armitage | XLK | 190.4 |
| Dev Kantesaria | XLF | 171.0 |
| David Rolfe | XLF | 163.9 |
| Stephen Mandel | XLK | 159.0 |
| Mohnish Pabrai | QQQ | 152.5 |
| Tom Slater | QQQ | 151.9 |
| Chris Hohn | QQQ | 147.6 |
| François Rochon | XLF | 146.5 |
| Andreas Halvorsen | XLK | 144.7 |
| Terry Smith | XLK | 116.5 |
| Glenn Greenberg | XLF | 114.0 |
| Polen Capital | XLK | 97.8 |
| Joel Greenblatt | XLK | 95.0 |
| Lee Ainslie | XLK | 86.9 |
| William von Mueffling | XLK | 81.1 |
| Prem Watsa | QQQ | 37.6 |
| Bill Ackman | QQQ | 33.2 |
| Bill Nygren | XLF | 31.9 |
| Howard Marks | XLE | 27.6 |
| Jeffrey Ubben | QQQ | 27.3 |
| Carl Icahn | none in top-10 | — |
| David Einhorn | none in top-10 | — |
| Seth Klarman | none in top-10 | — |
| Michael Burry | none in top-10 | — |
Why this is approximate
Managers disclose ~10-50 positions in 13F filings, and HoldLens tracks each manager's top-10. ETFs hold hundreds of positions; HoldLens tracks each ETF's top-10 disclosed weights. So this overlap-score reads tip-of-the-iceberg vs tip-of-the-iceberg — useful for the most-conviction positions, weak for tail exposure.
A high score means the manager's biggest names are also the ETF's biggest names. A low score means the manager has either (a) ran very different concentrated positions or (b) holds tickers outside the ETF's top-10. Either way, the score does not predict tracking error against the ETF; it measures top-10 holdings overlap as a quote-ready signal.
Related
Educational analysis based on disclosed top-10 holdings. Not a recommendation to buy any ETF or stock. Holdings change quarterly (managers) or daily (ETFs); scores reflect snapshots.
Reading for your research
Optional background reading on interpreting company disclosures and investing methods. These books do not validate a signal or predict returns.
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