Divergence
Where the smart money is split: tickers with ≥2 tracked superinvestors net buying AND ≥2 net selling in the same quarter. The debate signal — when conviction actively disagrees.
Currently 257 divergence events across all tracked quarters · 38 in the latest quarter (Q1 2026).
Q1 2026 divergence (38)
- Bill Ackman (new, +100%)
- François Rochon (add, +12%)
- Glenn Greenberg (add, +286%)
- Joel Greenblatt (add, +60%)
- Andreas Halvorsen (trim, -28%)
- Chase Coleman (trim, -54%)
- Chris Hohn (trim, -84%)
- David Tepper (trim, -82%)
- Lee Ainslie (exit, -100%)
- Polen Capital (trim, -27%)
- Stephen Mandel (exit, -100%)
- Tom Slater (trim, -30%)
- William von Mueffling (trim, -12%)
- Bill Ackman (add, +19%)
- Bill Nygren (add, +7%)
- David Rolfe (add, +71%)
- David Tepper (add, +98%)
- Joel Greenblatt (add, +6%)
- Seth Klarman (add, +47%)
- Andreas Halvorsen (trim, -62%)
- Lee Ainslie (trim, -10%)
- Polen Capital (trim, -55%)
- Stanley Druckenmiller (trim, -71%)
- Stephen Mandel (exit, -100%)
- Warren Buffett (exit, -100%)
- Andreas Halvorsen (add, +59%)
- Chris Hohn (add, +10%)
- Joel Greenblatt (add, +36%)
- Seth Klarman (new, +100%)
- Stephen Mandel (add, +510%)
- Chuck Akre (trim, -39%)
- Dev Kantesaria (trim, -35%)
- Glenn Greenberg (exit, -100%)
- Polen Capital (trim, -28%)
- Terry Smith (trim, -12%)
- Warren Buffett (exit, -100%)
- William von Mueffling (trim, -12%)
- Chris Hohn (new, +100%)
- Joel Greenblatt (add, +28%)
- Lee Ainslie (new, +100%)
- Stephen Mandel (new, +100%)
- Warren Buffett (add, +204%)
- Andreas Halvorsen (trim, -10%)
- Bill Ackman (trim, -95%)
- Bill Nygren (trim, -6%)
- Polen Capital (trim, -9%)
- Stanley Druckenmiller (exit, -100%)
- Terry Smith (trim, -16%)
- William von Mueffling (trim, -12%)
- Bill Nygren (add, +6%)
- Chase Coleman (add, +25%)
- Joel Greenblatt (add, +37%)
- Stanley Druckenmiller (new, +100%)
- Chuck Akre (trim, -37%)
- Lee Ainslie (trim, -99%)
- Polen Capital (trim, -24%)
- Stephen Mandel (trim, -37%)
- William von Mueffling (trim, -12%)
- Chase Coleman (add, +49%)
- David Tepper (add, +17%)
- Andreas Halvorsen (trim, -9%)
- David Rolfe (trim, -30%)
- François Rochon (trim, -49%)
- Lee Ainslie (trim, -35%)
- Polen Capital (trim, -13%)
- Stanley Druckenmiller (trim, -9%)
- Stephen Mandel (trim, -54%)
- William von Mueffling (trim, -12%)
- Chris Hohn (add, +17%)
- Joel Greenblatt (add, +14%)
- Seth Klarman (add, +9%)
- Warren Buffett (new, +100%)
- Bill Ackman (trim, -95%)
- Bill Nygren (trim, -8%)
- Polen Capital (trim, -27%)
- Tom Slater (trim, -7%)
- Andreas Halvorsen (new, +100%)
- Chase Coleman (add, +12%)
- Glenn Greenberg (add, +10%)
- Lee Ainslie (new, +100%)
- Polen Capital (new, +100%)
- David Tepper (trim, -27%)
- Joel Greenblatt (trim, -10%)
- Tom Slater (trim, -7%)
- Andreas Halvorsen (add, +39%)
- Joel Greenblatt (add, +128%)
- Seth Klarman (new, +100%)
- Polen Capital (trim, -27%)
- Warren Buffett (exit, -100%)
- William von Mueffling (trim, -12%)
- Chuck Akre (add, +8%)
- Joel Greenblatt (add, +242%)
- Polen Capital (add, +157%)
- Andreas Halvorsen (exit, -100%)
- Chase Coleman (trim, -34%)
- Lee Ainslie (exit, -100%)
- Bill Nygren (add, +52%)
- Chuck Akre (new, +100%)
- Joel Greenblatt (add, +34%)
- Polen Capital (trim, -53%)
- Tom Slater (trim, -71%)
- William von Mueffling (trim, -12%)
- Joel Greenblatt (add, +11%)
- Prem Watsa (add, +11%)
- Tom Slater (add, +5249%)
- Stanley Druckenmiller (exit, -100%)
- Stephen Mandel (exit, -100%)
- Terry Smith (trim, -17%)
Showing 12 of 38. Older quarters below.
By quarter
- Q4 202538 divergence events · top: META, AMZN, MSFT
- Q3 202542 divergence events · top: MSFT, META, GOOGL
- Q2 202529 divergence events · top: META, AMZN, TSM
- Q1 202544 divergence events · top: MSFT, META, BN
- Q4 202438 divergence events · top: AMZN, MSFT, AAPL
- Q3 202428 divergence events · top: MSFT, META, TSM
The companion to /consensus/
/consensus/ surfaces tickers where smart money agrees (multiple buyers, no sellers). /divergence/ surfaces the opposite: tickers where smart money explicitly disagrees. Both are valid signals; they answer different questions.
- Consensus = "high conviction this is mispriced." Lower variance, often slower compounding.
- Divergence = "smart money is fighting over the thesis." Higher variance, asymmetric bets in either direction.
What divergence often signals
- Inflection-point trades — value managers exiting on multiple expansion while growth managers building (Tesla 2020-2021)
- Capital-cycle turning points — energy, real estate, mining where some superinvestors call top while others call bottom
- Activist-anticipation — a famously activist-friendly investor building a position while traditional value players exit (often signals incoming campaign)
Methodology
Computed live at build time from 13F filings across 30 tracked superinvestors. A ticker meets the divergence threshold when at least 2 managers filed an "add" or "new" position AND at least 2 managers filed a "trim" or "exit" within the same SEC quarterly window. Intensity = (buyers × sellers × 10) — peaks when the disagreement is large and balanced.
Same disclaimer applies — 45-day 13F filing lag is real; this is structured data on past conviction, not investment advice.
Related
Consensus (where smart money agrees) · Contrarian bets · Best now (top conviction) · All 13F filings